Here an attempt will be made from none of the existing
angles and rather, from a fresh one.
The crux of the problem lies more in a simple economic
reality of the state and what is ironically, a “problem of plenty”. This
analysis is important because it not only describes the reasons for the
downfall of the CPIM in Tripura but will also play an important part in the
downfall of many other established stalwarts in other states.
What is the CPIM Tripura?
For all useful purposes, the CPIM Tripura is an extension of
the CPIM Bengal, this is not because of the obvious Bengali makeup of the twain
but rather in their strategic, tactical and mass lines as well as their style
of governance. The only differentiation between the two lies in the tactical
mistake of the Bengal unit, in Nandigram. Note: It is crucial to understand
here that the mistake of CM Buddhadeb flirting with neoliberalism was not the
death’s knell for Communist leadership in Bengal. Buddhadeb at best can be chastised
for botching up the transition to neoliberalism. Though, the bigger ideological
question of whether a neoliberalist shift was right or wrong for a Communist
Govt to take ultimately would point to a resounding Wrong but only in the final
analysis.
So, we return to Tripura… A state that was largely wracked
by insurgency and militancy that is typical of the North East and almost
outdoing Kashmir. CM Manik Sarkar had enjoyed a 25 year term in office in which
he had done stellar work in improving the Human Development indices. His work
in this field as well as removing martial law of AFSPA was something that was
truly laudable. For most people who do not live in Tripura, this seemed like
enough medals earned to last a lifetime in office. For the person on the
ground, the removal of AFSPA and being able to read the newspapers made no
difference. For this person now wanted more and more than what attending to the
basics could offer. And this is where Manik Sarkar had indeed not paid enough
attention to the very crucial economic point!
The Economic Demand and Supply of Labour
Economics is all about Demand and Supply and this is even
more important when in a Capitalist system as is the case in India. When you
lift a population up out of the gutters and make them some of the most educated
within a certain limit, there has to be an economic demand for those people to
be employed. This economic demand for skilled or educated labour comes from
either the state or the private sector, as available in the area. Manik Sarkar
it can thus be said, pushed the earning potential of Tripura’s labour up but
didn’t make it earn. Thus, the net effect of Tripura’s stellar HDI was
nullified and the state actually remained where it might as well have been 20
years ago.
When we contrast this to a state like Kerala which is also a
Red State, you see the course that a Manik Sarkar should have taken. Kerala’s
highly skilled population have the luxury of migrating out of the state to
regions that are barely an hour or two away from the state, and then for a
little more pain, they can easily have hopped on to the gulf bandwagon to be
employed. Thus, the demand if not within the state in terms of industry existed
close by enough to enjoy the benefits of living in Red State while working
outside. Fast forward to the oncoming crisis in the Gulf and we see the Gulf
migrants returning in huge droves. However, the Govt recognized this as a huge
potential problem for the state and took the extremely astute step of
reinvigorating the public sector units that were left to die by previous govts.
These started posting profits, obviously job creation followed. In addition to
this was the slow but steady growth of services in Kerala. Note that Kerala is
not a populous state so even small measures in job creation have a good effect in
the overall picture. Kerala’s finance minister has realized the demand and
supply factors that influence labour extremely well, stellarly well in fact.
Let us now demonstrate this in a non Red State, Gujarat.
Gujarat has a high unemployment rate and extremely low HDI numbers. One could
chalk this down to bad governance and policy but no… it is by design. Gujarat
relies on a model that highly class centric in educational access. Thus, the
rich have the best of education, the middle class (who are largely in Petty
Bourgeois professions) and the lower classes which have no way of increasing
the earnings potential. Thus, whatever little jobs are created are mopped up by
the elites, the middle classes are resigned to their earnings potential which
they believe is directly proportional to commodity fluctuations only, and the
lower classes who are led to believe that their fates are sealed due to the
high price of education. This obviously would create tensions among the lowest
classes who want upward mobility and this has to be done through either brutal
state repression and ensuring that labour cannot organize. In short, it is a
classical neoliberal model of a state. This
means that Gujarat, never has to bother about creating “Quality employment”
The Political outcomes of the economics of labour
The conclusions of the above analysis are actually quite
bleak for regimes that have established themselves on pushing welfare and human
resource development blindly without providing for an outlet for that development.
This is even more dangerous in communities that place a near fanatical
obsession on education and erudition – such is the case in the five Southern
States. In these states, it is the Governments that have to rapidly catch up to
provide employment opportunities – the human growth requirements in these
states are thus not linear and a matter of scaling up, but rather of geometrical
progression along with scaling up. In simple terms, better work and more work
in general. A runaway situation eventually will develop and in a capitalist
model, will lead to unemployment if the government can not keep up. To avoid
this situation, the government must then concentrate on reducing exponential
growth in population via measures like encouraging women in the workplace, taking
a more feminist line, and in the worst case, penalizing population growth.
What this further means is that Governments that have gotten
their votary in a comfortable position as is the case in Andhra, Telangana and
Karnataka can surely look forward to being out of power in a decade or so ceteris
paribus, purely on the economics of human development.
The role of the Communists and what is to be done?
The challenge for the Communist Parties involve redrawing up
the Economic Program for each electoral constituency and state, to a lesser
grand narrative. In terms of Marxist nomenclature, forgoing the primary
contradiction for the secondary contradiction i.e focusing on the immediate
threat.
1.
Among states it is no longer in power: This specifically
implies Tripura. This state will have adopt a dual line of messaging that
targets the peasantry and the new proletariat. The time-tested Marxian axiom
comes back here but where the Indian Communist Parties have successively failed
is in its ability to message the proletariat. In Tripura, the new fascist Government
will attempt a neoliberal line and this will immediately cause distress to the
lower classes in the form of takeover of land and a suddenly decrease in govt
expenditure. The Communist party must thus publicize a “prediction of where the
BJP will goof up” namely, job creation, land acquisition, internal and communal
conflicts to distract the population, and cutting back on welfare. The Communist
Parties must thus come back as a savior of the poor, huddled and abandoned masses.
“We take those who this society has rejected and they will be our vehicles to
power.”
2.
In the states, where there is communist strength
but no presence of the BJP: Here the incumbent Govt will already be under an
onslaught from one side. Bengal comes under this categorization. Here both
opponents will only be able to fight on the communal angles not economic ones.
The messaging here has to bring together a stagnant economy and a harking back
to the communal harmony of Communist rule. Among the rural peasantry, the
struggles must be more than simply protests and must be of getting deliverables
to the table. This involves moving courts, blocking parliaments, and militant
unionism.
3.
In states of no Communist presence: Maharashtra
has shown the way here and is a model that can be replicated in every state.
Find those who have been abandoned by the state and society, organize them to
get their rights. There also has to be a coalescing of struggles here. Thus,
the Dalit agitation has to be supported by the farmers movement and vice versa.
Identity politics must mix with the Labour movement and this is an outreach
that has to be done. Thus for a Bhima Koregoan agitation, Labour must strike
and walk with the Dalits.
4.
In Red States: So far, Kerala has gotten it
right but it must now step up the pace and fast. The two methods available are
controlled Capitalism or massive regeneration of the PSUs. The motto must be…
No man or woman unemployed! If Kerala can stick to the PSU model of growth then
it will be the biggest success of Communism yet, economically. A cult thus come
forth from Kerala, a cult of Communism that is reminiscent of the 70s and 60s.
These measures in are long, arduous struggles and thus will
not happen overnight but through protracted efforts. All these measures do not
include guerilla strikes politically to ensure that the Liberal and Right Wing
forces every now and then are dented and destroyed.
To quote Lenin… Ensure a victory every time no matter how
big or small but do not stop until the victory is delivered.
